June 2014


See on Scoop.itMedical GIS Guide

http://youtu.be/qN9CALP2_uw ;   Chicago Illness, Full video,7, recording session 0808, Teaching Videos.  The ways in which a disease like MERS can spread from Chicago to other parts of the country, based on the Chicago Illness diffusion pattern accompanied by lecture notes and demonstrations .

Brian Altonen‘s insight:

The Diffusion of diseases in this country follow several spatial patterns and abide by specific temporal patterns.  

 

   The simplest spatial model for diffusion is the radial or linear process with follows either just the air and is impacted by wind flow patterns (radial), or travels a natural route of least resistance such as through a gully, along a woodlands edge, parallel to roadways and animal migration routes (linear).

 

   A more complex spatial model follows human migration and travel patterns and certain commercial or economic paths.  The most human dependent ironically abide by many of the same patterns that inventions and discoveries tend to follow.  They hierarchically diffuse from one area to the next, going from large population area to large population area and then back-tracking to smaller areas between these major landing or outbreak areas.

 

   In some cases, especially when poverty becomes a major issue in how a disease develops, a reversed hierarchical pattern develops.  That is to say they at first behave hierarchically, moving from one large area to the next, but each time they reach a new population center, they infect the most susceptible populations.  In most urban settings, for numerous regions low income, low socioeconomic status neighborhoods become the places where many of these disease develop, or adapt to human population features and human behaviors to help find the next susceptible victims.  Cholera is an example that migrates internationally in this fashion.  The most susceptible areas and people are typically low income groups residing in low property value settings (poor managed, filthy, least desirable living places.)

 

   The temporal pattern of disease flow is related to how it travels and at what rate across the earth’s surface.  As recent diseases making their way to the United States from other countries demonstrate, distance is no longer a deterrent to international disease spread.  Even Australia, more than 10,000 miles away from the center of the U.S., is capable of sending its next disease or vector to the U.S.

 

   This review of how diseases that make their way to Chicago fits the current dilemma we are in with international disease migration patterns and concerns.  The spread of MERS into the more southern midwestern regions of the U.S., demonstrates a possible mixed diffusion pattern.  The early stages appear to be linear or radial in nature based on transportation routes, but should this disease take off and produce an outbreak, hierarchical diffusion patterns are expected as well.

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See on Scoop.itGlobal Health Care

MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) is a coronoa virus induced disease first documented in Saudi Arabia in 2012.  It’s mortality rate is about 30%.  On May 2, 2014, the first case of MERS made its way to the United States.  On May 11, 2014, a second U.S. case was confirmed.  (http://www.cdc.gov/CORONAVIRUS/MERS/INDEX.HTML)

Brian Altonen‘s insight:

News about the United States cases of MERS is at the CDC site http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/US.html

 

The status of health care in Saudi Arabia was detailed in the conference presentation:  

HEALTH CARE DATA IN SAUDI ARABIA:  CHALLENGES IN COLLECTING, SHARING, AND APPLYING, by Mohammed Al-Kelya MS, PhD  and Abdulaziz Al-Saggabi, MSc, PharmD (http://www.ispor.org/meetings/neworleans0513/releasedpresentations/FORUMArabicNetwork.pdf&nbsp😉

 

WHO has reviewed healthcare in Saudia Arabia and presented its conclusions  at Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal – Health care system in Saudi Arabia: an overview, http://www.emro.who.int/emhj-volume-17/volume-17-issue-10/article-11.html

In a 2008 article published in the Lancet about disease penetration due to tourism and travel, a complete review was provided for diseases from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere,

Lin H. Chen, and Mary Elizabeth Wilson.  The Role of theTraveler in Emerging Infections and Magnitude of Travel,  Med Clin N Am 92 (2008) 1409–1432.  doi:10.1016/j.mcna.2008.07.005.

available in its entirety at http://download.thelancet.com/flatcontentassets/H1N1-flu/epidemiology/epidemiology-1.pdf

Older people with comorbidities are at the highest risk of infection and mortality from this diagnosis.   For more, see "Health officials keep close watch over MERS as potential pandemic", in 

Infectious Diseases in Children, September 2013, at http://www.healio.com/pediatrics/news/print/infectious-diseases-in-children/%7Bf9c3c3e0-0c66-45e5-a024-5256240113e5%7D/health-officials-keep-close-watch-over-mers-as-potential-pandemic

 

As many as 17 million people per year travel out of Saudi Arabia to other parts of the world.  High migration rates for people and high mortality rates for the virus (30-50%) are the makings for a potential pandemic, according to some writers.

 

For more on migrating disease patterns, see also:

 

Infectious Disease Movement in a Borderless World:: Workshop Summary, by Forum on Microbial Threats, Board on Global Health, Institute of Medicine.  National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.  Preview available at http://books.google.com/books?id=TJZhAgAAQBAJ&lpg=PT67

 

INFECTIOUS DISEASES RELATED TO INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL AND MIGRATION: PART I .  By George A. Wistreich, RC Educational Consulting Services, Inc, PDF accessible at http://www.rcecs.com/MyCE/PDFDocs/course/V7104.pdf

 

See on news.yahoo.com

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