CDC Confirms First Ebola Case Diagnosed in U.S.

Source: abcnews.go.com

We can rationalize it as much as we want to, but it still happened. Now we are left with an opportunity to look at the exact number of people possibly in direct, indirect and atmospheric to inferred indirect contact. Directly and indirectly infected places versus infected people can be documented. Right now it is only a case that is a loner within the lone star state. It is not how many cases there have been and how many of these were fatal that matters so much any more. The question might do become what stage in that exponential growth curve are we in? and what is the doubling time? Right now we are in the first stage of disease ecological development in a spatial diffusion process. Pure spatial features defining this outbreak make it a radial event to imagine. Hierarchical human diffusion pattern make us worry about whether there is (will be or could be) a direct flow of the contagion between airports impacting other latitudes in the US, or might it be restricted mostly to intrastate patterns? Due to incubation times, we may now have to wait two or three weeks to find out. Fortunately, seasonal climate changes are on our side, since the cooler months of winter are approaching in Texas. Geography and climate are in favor of the outbreak for the next month or two spatially. The lack of US engagement in this crisis several months ago means we are directly responsible for our own fate at this point. There was no reason or logic for our failure to engage in appropriate preventive health care practices two to three months ago. The outbreak status here has moved from prevention to containment stage. By now, if we are fully prepared in Atlanta, transportation analysts should know the flow patterns in and around this new potential nidus–by air, land and even water. If not, we’ve been caught with our guards down. By tomorrow we’d better know how a potential host-vector relationship might develop. Even once human cases are fully contained, an animal born ecological nidus can still develop. An eastward, northeastward flow pattern out of Texas is therefore favored. But I am really just looking at worst scenarios here. Let’s hope this Texas case remains on its own turf and hospital bed in the Lone Star state. History show us that it is nearly impossible to prevent foreign born diseases from coming to the U.S. We can delay entry, but if ecology is in favor of transmission and human behavior remains the same, nature simply waits until we let our guards down again. When it comes to man versus nature, we may first win out spatially. However, temporally, nature is not on our side.

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